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Musanze vs Rwamagana City — National Soccer League 2019

Musanze
Musanze
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rwamagana City
Rwamagana City
A. Kamanzi 55'
4/26/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 25Ubworoherane Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Musanze50%
×Draw29%
Rwamagana City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musanze
1.29
Rwamagana City
0.73

Musanze creates 77% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

Musanze
1.15
Rwamagana City
0.69

allows per match

Musanze
0.78
Rwamagana City
1.44

finishing

Musanze+0.00on par
Rwamagana City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musanze ↓

Rwamagana City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Musanze or draw
79%
Musanze or Rwamagana City
71%
Draw or Rwamagana City
50%

Winning margin

Musanze wins by 2+
23%
Rwamagana City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Musanze 1+ goals
72%
Musanze 2+ goals
37%
Musanze 3+ goals
14%
Rwamagana City 1+ goals
52%
Rwamagana City 2+ goals
17%
Rwamagana City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Musanze (draw refunded)
70%
Rwamagana City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musanze at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Rwamagana City away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musanze attack 1.15 + Rwamagana City defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rwamagana City attack 0.69 + Musanze defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Musanze scores more
50%
level
29%
Rwamagana City scores more
21%

Musanze at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Musanze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
A. Kamanzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Musanze vs Rwamagana City

Musanze beat Rwamagana City 1-0 in National Soccer League on April 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Kamanzi (55').

The match was played at Ubworoherane Football Stadium in Musanze.