Musanze 0–0 Etoile de l'Est: Result & Stats

Musanze

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Etoile de l'Est

1/13/2024

National Soccer League · Round 16Ubworoherane Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Musanze53%

×Draw27%

Etoile de l'Est20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MusanzeExpected goals in this matchEtoile de l'Est

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.74

Musanze

1.41

Etoile de l'Est

0.74

Musanze creates 91% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 30 away

1.15

creates per match

0.70

0.78

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Musanze

1.15

Etoile de l'Est

0.70

allows per match

Musanze

0.78

Etoile de l'Est

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Musanze+0.00on par

Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musanze ↓

Etoile de l'Est →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Musanze or draw

80%

Musanze or Etoile de l'Est

73%

Draw or Etoile de l'Est

47%

Winning margin

Musanze wins by 2+

26%

Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Musanze 1+ goals

76%

Musanze 2+ goals

41%

Musanze 3+ goals

17%

Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals

52%

Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals

17%

Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Musanze (draw refunded)

73%

Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musanze at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musanze attack 1.15 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Musanze defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Musanze scores more

53%

level

27%

Etoile de l'Est scores more

20%

Musanze at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Musanze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff