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Musanze vs Espoir — National Soccer League 2019

Musanze
Musanze
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Espoir
Espoir
10/2/2022National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 4Ubworoherane Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Musanze54%
×Draw27%
Espoir19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musanze
1.46
Espoir
0.74

Musanze creates 97% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 50 away

creates per match

Musanze
1.15
Espoir
0.70

allows per match

Musanze
0.78
Espoir
1.78

finishing

Musanze+0.00on par
Espoir+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musanze ↓

Espoir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Musanze or draw
81%
Musanze or Espoir
73%
Draw or Espoir
46%

Winning margin

Musanze wins by 2+
28%
Espoir wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Musanze 1+ goals
77%
Musanze 2+ goals
43%
Musanze 3+ goals
18%
Espoir 1+ goals
52%
Espoir 2+ goals
17%
Espoir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Musanze (draw refunded)
74%
Espoir (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musanze at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Espoir away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musanze attack 1.15 + Espoir defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Espoir attack 0.70 + Musanze defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Musanze scores more
54%
level
27%
Espoir scores more
19%

Musanze at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Musanze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Musanze 2–1 Espoir

Musanze beat Espoir 2-1 in National Soccer League on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Ubworoherane Football Stadium in Musanze.