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Musa vs Turku PS — Ykkönen 2026

Musa
Musa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Turku PS
Turku PS
V. Salminen 45+2'
S. Rähmönen 71'
E. Espinosa 50' (pen), 32'
8/10/2019YkkönenYkkönen · Round 10Porin Stadion (Pori)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Musa30%
×Draw24%
Turku PS45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musa
1.29
Turku PS
1.63

Turku PS creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

creates per match

Musa
1.65
Turku PS
1.38

allows per match

Musa
1.89
Turku PS
0.94

finishing

Musa+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musa ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Musa or draw
55%
Musa or Turku PS
76%
Draw or Turku PS
70%

Winning margin

Musa wins by 2+
13%
Turku PS wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Musa 1+ goals
72%
Musa 2+ goals
37%
Musa 3+ goals
14%
Turku PS 1+ goals
80%
Turku PS 2+ goals
48%
Turku PS 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Musa (draw refunded)
40%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musa at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.94 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musa attack 1.65 + Turku PS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.29

Turku PS attack 1.38 + Musa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Musa scores more
30%
level
24%
Turku PS scores more
45%

Turku PS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. M. Moundi
26'
E. Espinosa Calvo
27'
S. Virtanen
32'
E. Espinosa
35'
J. Rantala
43'
T. Varmanen
45+2'
V. Salminen
49'
J. Lamsa
50'
E. EspinosaPenalty
60'
J. Latonen
71'
S. Rähmönen
78'
A. Muzaci
87'
M. Koskinen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Musa 1 – 3 Turku PS

Turku PS beat Musa 3-1 in Ykkönen on August 10, 2019.

Goals: E. Espinosa (32', 50' pen), V. Salminen (45+2'), S. Rähmönen (71').

The match was played at Porin Stadion (Pori).