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Musa vs Loiske — Suomen Cup 2018

Musa
Musa
FT
8 – 0
Loiske
Loiske
4/1/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundPorin Urheilukeskus tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Musa29%
×Draw19%
Loiske52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musa
1.95
Loiske
2.62

Loiske creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Musa
1.90
Loiske
3.83

allows per match

Musa
1.40
Loiske
2.00

finishing

Musa+0.00on par
Loiske+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musa ↓

Loiske →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Musa or draw
48%
Musa or Loiske
81%
Draw or Loiske
71%

Winning margin

Musa wins by 2+
15%
Loiske wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Musa 1+ goals
86%
Musa 2+ goals
58%
Musa 3+ goals
31%
Loiske 1+ goals
93%
Loiske 2+ goals
73%
Loiske 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Musa (draw refunded)
36%
Loiske (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musa at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Loiske away — creates 3.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musa attack 1.90 + Loiske defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Loiske attack 3.83 + Musa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Musa scores more
29%
level
19%
Loiske scores more
52%

Loiske at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Loiske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Musa 8 – 0 Loiske

Musa beat Loiske 8-0 in Suomen Cup on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Porin Urheilukeskus tn in Pori.