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Musa vs Honka Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Musa
Musa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
8/25/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 18Musan kenttä (Pori)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Musa36%
×Draw24%
Honka Akatemia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musa
1.44
Honka Akatemia
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 56 away

creates per match

Musa
1.58
Honka Akatemia
1.57

allows per match

Musa
1.50
Honka Akatemia
1.30

finishing

Musa+0.00on par
Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musa ↓

Honka Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Musa or draw
60%
Musa or Honka Akatemia
76%
Draw or Honka Akatemia
64%

Winning margin

Musa wins by 2+
17%
Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Musa 1+ goals
76%
Musa 2+ goals
42%
Musa 3+ goals
18%
Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
79%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
45%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Musa (draw refunded)
47%
Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musa attack 1.58 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Honka Akatemia attack 1.57 + Musa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Musa scores more
36%
level
24%
Honka Akatemia scores more
40%

Honka Akatemia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Musa 2–1 Honka Akatemia

Musa beat Honka Akatemia 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Musan kenttä (Pori).