Muş Sport Klübü 8–0 Şırnak İdmanyurdu

Muş Sport Klübü

FT

8 – 0

HT: 6 – 0

Şırnak İdmanyurdu

9/3/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundMuş Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Muş Sport Klübü90%

×Draw7%

Şırnak İdmanyurdu3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muş Sport KlübüExpected goals in this matchŞırnak İdmanyurdu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.71

0.59

Muş Sport Klübü

3.71

Şırnak İdmanyurdu

0.59

Muş Sport Klübü creates 529% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

3.43

creates per match

0.33

0.86

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Muş Sport Klübü

3.43

Şırnak İdmanyurdu

0.33

allows per match

Muş Sport Klübü

0.86

Şırnak İdmanyurdu

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muş Sport Klübü+0.00on par

Şırnak İdmanyurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muş Sport Klübü ↓

Şırnak İdmanyurdu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Muş Sport Klübü or draw

97%

Muş Sport Klübü or Şırnak İdmanyurdu

93%

Draw or Şırnak İdmanyurdu

10%

Winning margin

Muş Sport Klübü wins by 2+

76%

Şırnak İdmanyurdu wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Muş Sport Klübü 1+ goals

97%

Muş Sport Klübü 2+ goals

87%

Muş Sport Klübü 3+ goals

69%

Şırnak İdmanyurdu 1+ goals

45%

Şırnak İdmanyurdu 2+ goals

12%

Şırnak İdmanyurdu 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Muş Sport Klübü (draw refunded)

97%

Şırnak İdmanyurdu (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muş Sport Klübü at home — creates 3.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Şırnak İdmanyurdu away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muş Sport Klübü attack 3.43 + Şırnak İdmanyurdu defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.71

Şırnak İdmanyurdu attack 0.33 + Muş Sport Klübü defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Muş Sport Klübü scores more

90%

level

7%

Şırnak İdmanyurdu scores more

3%

Muş Sport Klübü at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Muş Sport Klübü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff