Muş Sport Klübü 5–0 Mazıdağı Fosfatspor

Muş Sport Klübü

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor

9/17/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundMuş Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Muş Sport Klübü88%

×Draw9%

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muş Sport KlübüExpected goals in this matchMazıdağı Fosfatspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.05

0.43

Muş Sport Klübü

3.05

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor

0.43

Muş Sport Klübü creates 609% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

3.43

creates per match

0.00

0.86

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Muş Sport Klübü

3.43

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor

0.00

allows per match

Muş Sport Klübü

0.86

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muş Sport Klübü+0.00on par

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muş Sport Klübü ↓

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Muş Sport Klübü or draw

97%

Muş Sport Klübü or Mazıdağı Fosfatspor

91%

Draw or Mazıdağı Fosfatspor

12%

Winning margin

Muş Sport Klübü wins by 2+

70%

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Muş Sport Klübü 1+ goals

95%

Muş Sport Klübü 2+ goals

80%

Muş Sport Klübü 3+ goals

57%

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 1+ goals

35%

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 2+ goals

7%

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Muş Sport Klübü (draw refunded)

97%

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muş Sport Klübü at home — creates 3.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muş Sport Klübü attack 3.43 + Mazıdağı Fosfatspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.05

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor attack 0.00 + Muş Sport Klübü defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Muş Sport Klübü scores more

88%

level

9%

Mazıdağı Fosfatspor scores more

3%

Muş Sport Klübü at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Muş Sport Klübü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff