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Murom vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Murom
Murom
CANC
11:00
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
4/3/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Murom63%
×Draw23%
Zenit Irkutsk14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.71
Zenit Irkutsk
0.65

Murom creates 163% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 6 away

creates per match

Murom
1.59
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Murom
0.80
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Murom or draw
86%
Murom or Zenit Irkutsk
77%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
37%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
36%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
82%
Murom 2+ goals
51%
Murom 3+ goals
24%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
48%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
14%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
82%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.59 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Murom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Murom scores more
63%
level
23%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
14%

Murom at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Murom face Zenit Irkutsk (Second League - Group 2)

Second League - Group 2 returns with Murom hosting Zenit Irkutsk. Match starts April 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.