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Murom vs Torpedo Miass — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Murom
Murom
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
10/18/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 14Viktor Losev Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Murom31%
×Draw31%
Torpedo Miass38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
0.94
Torpedo Miass
1.06

Torpedo Miass creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Murom
1.06
Torpedo Miass
1.00

allows per match

Murom
1.13
Torpedo Miass
0.81

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Murom or draw
62%
Murom or Torpedo Miass
69%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
69%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
11%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
61%
Murom 2+ goals
24%
Murom 3+ goals
7%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
65%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
29%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
45%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.06 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Torpedo Miass attack 1.00 + Murom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Murom scores more
31%
level
31%
Torpedo Miass scores more
38%

Torpedo Miass at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Torpedo Miass

Murom and Torpedo Miass drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Viktor Losev Stadion in Murom.