Murom 2–1 Spartak Kostroma: Result & Stats

Murom

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Kostroma

8/27/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 7Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Murom41%

×Draw28%

Spartak Kostroma31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuromExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Murom

1.27

Spartak Kostroma

1.08

Murom creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.22

creates per match

0.61

1.56

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Murom

1.22

Spartak Kostroma

0.61

allows per match

Murom

1.56

Spartak Kostroma

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murom+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Murom or draw

69%

Murom or Spartak Kostroma

72%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

59%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+

18%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals

72%

Murom 2+ goals

36%

Murom 3+ goals

14%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

66%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

29%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)

56%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.22 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Spartak Kostroma attack 0.61 + Murom defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Murom scores more

41%

level

28%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

31%

Murom at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff