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Murom vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Murom
Murom
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
11/9/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 17Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Murom34%
×Draw28%
Rodina Moskva II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.13
Rodina Moskva II
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Murom
1.06
Rodina Moskva II
1.24

allows per match

Murom
1.13
Rodina Moskva II
1.20

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Murom or draw
63%
Murom or Rodina Moskva II
72%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
66%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
14%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
68%
Murom 2+ goals
31%
Murom 3+ goals
11%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
70%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
33%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
48%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.06 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Murom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Murom scores more
34%
level
28%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
37%

Rodina Moskva II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Rodina Moskva II

Rodina Moskva II beat Murom 4-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.