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Murom vs Olimp-Dolgoprudny II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Murom
Murom
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
9/10/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Murom47%
×Draw26%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.48
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.04

Murom creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 14 away

creates per match

Murom
1.59
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.29

allows per match

Murom
0.80
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.36

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Murom or draw
73%
Murom or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
74%
Draw or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
53%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
24%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
77%
Murom 2+ goals
43%
Murom 3+ goals
19%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals
65%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals
28%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
64%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.59 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.29 + Murom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Murom scores more
47%
level
26%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more
27%

Murom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

Murom and Olimp-Dolgoprudny II drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.