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Murom vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Murom
Murom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
11/2/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 16Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Murom39%
×Draw27%
Metallurg Lipetsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.28
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.15

Murom creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Murom
1.06
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.17

allows per match

Murom
1.13
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.50

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Murom or draw
67%
Murom or Metallurg Lipetsk
73%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
61%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
18%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
72%
Murom 2+ goals
37%
Murom 3+ goals
14%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
68%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
32%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
54%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.06 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Murom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Murom scores more
39%
level
27%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
33%

Murom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Metallurg Lipetsk

Murom and Metallurg Lipetsk drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.