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Murom vs Kazanka — Second League - Group 2 2020

Murom
Murom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kazanka
Kazanka
11/12/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Murom47%
×Draw27%
Kazanka26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.41
Kazanka
0.98

Murom creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 31 away

creates per match

Murom
1.59
Kazanka
1.16

allows per match

Murom
0.80
Kazanka
1.23

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Kazanka+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Kazanka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Murom or draw
74%
Murom or Kazanka
73%
Draw or Kazanka
53%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
23%
Kazanka wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
76%
Murom 2+ goals
41%
Murom 3+ goals
17%
Kazanka 1+ goals
62%
Kazanka 2+ goals
26%
Kazanka 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
64%
Kazanka (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Kazanka away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.59 + Kazanka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kazanka attack 1.16 + Murom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Murom scores more
47%
level
27%
Kazanka scores more
26%

Murom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Murom 1 – 1 Kazanka

Murom and Kazanka drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on November 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.