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Murom vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Murom
Murom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
5/15/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Murom49%
×Draw27%
Kairat Moskva24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.40
Kairat Moskva
0.90

Murom creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 15 away

creates per match

Murom
1.59
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Murom
0.80
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Murom or draw
76%
Murom or Kairat Moskva
73%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
51%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
24%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
75%
Murom 2+ goals
41%
Murom 3+ goals
17%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
59%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
23%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
67%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.59 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Murom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Murom scores more
49%
level
27%
Kairat Moskva scores more
24%

Murom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Murom 0–1 Kairat Moskva

Kairat Moskva beat Murom 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.