Murom vs Chertanovo Moscow — Second League - Group 2 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Murom45%
Chertanovo Moscow30%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Murom creates 27% more chances
Season form · 51 home / 66 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Murom ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Murom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches
Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Murom attack 1.59 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56
Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Murom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Murom at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Murom substitutes
Chertanovo Moscow substitutes
Dolgoprudny
Zenit 2
Dinamo Moskva II
Leningradets
Tver
Kazanka
Rodina Moskva
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Torpedo Vladimir
SmolenskMurom
Znamya Truda
Luki-Energiya
Chita
Kolomna
Zenit IrkutskIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Murom host Chertanovo Moscow on Saturday, 10 September 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the Second League - Group 2 2020/2021 season.
Second League - Group 2: Murom 4–2 Chertanovo Moscow
Murom beat Chertanovo Moscow 4-2 in Second League - Group 2 on September 10, 2022.
Goals: A. Melekhov (10'), N. Golub (16', 45+1'), B. Madelkhan (47'), M. Levin (77'), A. Konev (83').
The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.