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Murom vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Murom
Murom
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
4/22/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Stadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Murom48%
×Draw26%
Baltika BFU26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.50
Baltika BFU
1.02

Murom creates 47% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

creates per match

Murom
1.59
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Murom
0.80
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Murom or draw
74%
Murom or Baltika BFU
74%
Draw or Baltika BFU
52%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
24%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
78%
Murom 2+ goals
44%
Murom 3+ goals
19%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
64%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
27%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
65%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.59 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Murom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Murom scores more
48%
level
26%
Baltika BFU scores more
26%

Murom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murom vs Baltika BFU

Murom beat Baltika BFU 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.