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Murom vs 2Drots — Cup 2019

Murom
Murom
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
2Drots
2Drots
8/23/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Park 50

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Murom27%
×Draw24%
2Drots49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murom
1.25
2Drots
1.75

2Drots creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Murom
1.75
2Drots
1.25

allows per match

Murom
2.25
2Drots
0.75

finishing

Murom+0.00on par
2Drots+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murom ↓

2Drots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Murom or draw
51%
Murom or 2Drots
76%
Draw or 2Drots
73%

Winning margin

Murom wins by 2+
11%
2Drots wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Murom 1+ goals
71%
Murom 2+ goals
36%
Murom 3+ goals
13%
2Drots 1+ goals
83%
2Drots 2+ goals
52%
2Drots 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Murom (draw refunded)
36%
2Drots (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murom at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

2Drots away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murom attack 1.75 + 2Drots defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

2Drots attack 1.25 + Murom defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Murom scores more
27%
level
24%
2Drots scores more
49%

2Drots at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "2Drots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Murom 1 – 3 2Drots

2Drots beat Murom 3-1 in Cup on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Park 50 in Murom.