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Murici Fc vs Fluminense De Feira — Serie D 2026

Murici Fc
Murici Fc
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fluminense De Feira
Fluminense De Feira
Alexsandro 80'
Paulo Sérgio 9' (pen)
Rafael Granja 51'
Josy 30'
7/10/2016Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio José Gomes da Costa (Murici, Alagoas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Murici Fc25%
×Draw23%
Fluminense De Feira52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murici Fc
1.21
Fluminense De Feira
1.85

Fluminense De Feira creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Murici Fc
1.27
Fluminense De Feira
1.62

allows per match

Murici Fc
2.09
Fluminense De Feira
1.15

finishing

Murici Fc+0.00on par
Fluminense De Feira+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murici Fc ↓

Fluminense De Feira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Murici Fc or draw
48%
Murici Fc or Fluminense De Feira
77%
Draw or Fluminense De Feira
75%

Winning margin

Murici Fc wins by 2+
10%
Fluminense De Feira wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Murici Fc 1+ goals
70%
Murici Fc 2+ goals
34%
Murici Fc 3+ goals
12%
Fluminense De Feira 1+ goals
84%
Fluminense De Feira 2+ goals
55%
Fluminense De Feira 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Murici Fc (draw refunded)
32%
Fluminense De Feira (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murici Fc at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Fluminense De Feira away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murici Fc attack 1.27 + Fluminense De Feira defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fluminense De Feira attack 1.62 + Murici Fc defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Murici Fc scores more
25%
level
23%
Fluminense De Feira scores more
52%

Fluminense De Feira at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fluminense De Feira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Paulo SérgioPenalty
30'
Josy
51'
Rafael Granja
80'
Alexsandro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murici Fc vs Fluminense De Feira

Murici Fc and Fluminense De Feira drew 2-2 in Serie D on July 10, 2016.

Goals: Paulo Sérgio (9' pen), Josy (30'), Rafael Granja (51'), Alexsandro (80').

The match was played at Estádio José Gomes da Costa (Murici, Alagoas).