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Muri vs Solothurn — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Muri
Muri
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Solothurn
Solothurn
2/26/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Brühl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Muri22%
×Draw19%
Solothurn58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muri
1.46
Solothurn
2.42

Solothurn creates 66% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

creates per match

Muri
1.20
Solothurn
1.81

allows per match

Muri
3.03
Solothurn
1.73

finishing

Muri+0.00on par
Solothurn+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muri ↓

Solothurn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Muri or draw
42%
Muri or Solothurn
81%
Draw or Solothurn
78%

Winning margin

Muri wins by 2+
10%
Solothurn wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Muri 1+ goals
77%
Muri 2+ goals
43%
Muri 3+ goals
18%
Solothurn 1+ goals
91%
Solothurn 2+ goals
69%
Solothurn 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Muri (draw refunded)
28%
Solothurn (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muri at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.03 · 30 matches

Solothurn away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.73 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muri attack 1.20 + Solothurn defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Solothurn attack 1.81 + Muri defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Muri scores more
22%
level
19%
Solothurn scores more
58%

Solothurn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Solothurn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muri vs Solothurn

Muri and Solothurn drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Brühl in Muri.