Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Muri vs Black Stars — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Muri
Muri
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Black Stars
Black Stars
3/24/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Brühl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Muri24%
×Draw19%
Black Stars57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muri
1.52
Black Stars
2.40

Black Stars creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Muri
1.20
Black Stars
1.77

allows per match

Muri
3.03
Black Stars
1.85

finishing

Muri+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muri ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Muri or draw
43%
Muri or Black Stars
81%
Draw or Black Stars
76%

Winning margin

Muri wins by 2+
11%
Black Stars wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Muri 1+ goals
78%
Muri 2+ goals
45%
Muri 3+ goals
20%
Black Stars 1+ goals
91%
Black Stars 2+ goals
69%
Black Stars 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Muri (draw refunded)
30%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muri at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.03 · 30 matches

Black Stars away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muri attack 1.20 + Black Stars defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Black Stars attack 1.77 + Muri defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Muri scores more
24%
level
19%
Black Stars scores more
57%

Black Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muri vs Black Stars

Black Stars beat Muri 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Brühl in Muri.