Murense 1–1 San Rafael: Result & Stats

Murense

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Rafael

2/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 21Camp de Fútbol de Muro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense32%

×Draw26%

San Rafael42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MurenseExpected goals in this matchSan Rafael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.42

Murense

1.22

San Rafael

1.42

San Rafael creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 47 away

0.90

creates per match

0.94

1.90

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Murense

0.90

San Rafael

0.94

allows per match

Murense

1.90

San Rafael

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murense+0.00on par

San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

San Rafael →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Murense or draw

58%

Murense or San Rafael

74%

Draw or San Rafael

68%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+

14%

San Rafael wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals

70%

Murense 2+ goals

34%

Murense 3+ goals

12%

San Rafael 1+ goals

76%

San Rafael 2+ goals

41%

San Rafael 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)

44%

San Rafael (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Murense scores more

32%

level

26%

San Rafael scores more

42%

San Rafael at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Rafael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff