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Murense vs Rotlet Molinar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Murense
Murense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotlet Molinar
Rotlet Molinar
4/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 41Camp de Fútbol de Muro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense37%
×Draw26%
Rotlet Molinar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murense
1.33
Rotlet Molinar
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

creates per match

Murense
0.90
Rotlet Molinar
0.76

allows per match

Murense
1.90
Rotlet Molinar
1.76

finishing

Murense+0.00on par
Rotlet Molinar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

Rotlet Molinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Murense or draw
63%
Murense or Rotlet Molinar
74%
Draw or Rotlet Molinar
63%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+
17%
Rotlet Molinar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals
74%
Murense 2+ goals
38%
Murense 3+ goals
15%
Rotlet Molinar 1+ goals
74%
Rotlet Molinar 2+ goals
38%
Rotlet Molinar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)
50%
Rotlet Molinar (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Rotlet Molinar away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + Rotlet Molinar defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rotlet Molinar attack 0.76 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Murense scores more
37%
level
26%
Rotlet Molinar scores more
37%

Murense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Murense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Murense 0–0 Rotlet Molinar

Murense and Rotlet Molinar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Camp de Fútbol de Muro in Muro.