Murense 0–1 Portmany: Result & Stats

Murense

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portmany

2/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Camp de Fútbol de Muro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense34%

×Draw26%

Portmany40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MurenseExpected goals in this matchPortmany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.44

Murense

1.31

Portmany

1.44

Portmany creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 112 away

0.90

creates per match

0.99

1.90

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Murense

0.90

Portmany

0.99

allows per match

Murense

1.90

Portmany

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murense+0.00on par

Portmany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

Portmany →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Murense or draw

60%

Murense or Portmany

74%

Draw or Portmany

66%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+

15%

Portmany wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals

73%

Murense 2+ goals

38%

Murense 3+ goals

14%

Portmany 1+ goals

76%

Portmany 2+ goals

42%

Portmany 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)

46%

Portmany (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Portmany away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.73 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + Portmany defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Portmany attack 0.99 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Murense scores more

34%

level

26%

Portmany scores more

40%

Portmany at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portmany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff