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Murense vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Murense
Murense
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Llosetense
Llosetense
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 15Camp Municipal Es Puig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense27%
×Draw25%
Llosetense48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murense
1.12
Llosetense
1.60

Llosetense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 116 away

creates per match

Murense
0.90
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Murense
1.90
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Murense+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Murense or draw
52%
Murense or Llosetense
75%
Draw or Llosetense
73%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+
10%
Llosetense wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals
67%
Murense 2+ goals
31%
Murense 3+ goals
10%
Llosetense 1+ goals
80%
Llosetense 2+ goals
47%
Llosetense 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)
36%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Murense scores more
27%
level
25%
Llosetense scores more
48%

Llosetense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Murense 0–5 Llosetense

Llosetense beat Murense 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Es Puig in Mallorca.