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Murense vs Constància — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Murense
Murense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Constància
Constància
10/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Camp de Futbol de Maria de la Salut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense24%
×Draw26%
Constància50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murense
0.97
Constància
1.52

Constància creates 57% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 115 away

creates per match

Murense
0.90
Constància
1.15

allows per match

Murense
1.90
Constància
1.04

finishing

Murense+0.00on par
Constància+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

Constància →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Murense or draw
50%
Murense or Constància
74%
Draw or Constància
76%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+
9%
Constància wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals
62%
Murense 2+ goals
25%
Murense 3+ goals
7%
Constància 1+ goals
78%
Constància 2+ goals
45%
Constància 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)
33%
Constància (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Constància away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + Constància defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Constància attack 1.15 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Murense scores more
24%
level
26%
Constància scores more
50%

Constància at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Constància will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Murense 2–0 Constància

Murense beat Constància 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol de Maria de la Salut in Maria de la Salut.