Murdoch Melville 2–1 Gosnells City: Result & Stats

Murdoch Melville

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gosnells City

5/10/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 7Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Murdoch Melville53%

×Draw21%

Gosnells City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Murdoch MelvilleExpected goals in this matchGosnells City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.51

Murdoch Melville

2.19

Gosnells City

1.51

Murdoch Melville creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

2.10

creates per match

0.91

2.10

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Murdoch Melville

2.10

Gosnells City

0.91

allows per match

Murdoch Melville

2.10

Gosnells City

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murdoch Melville+0.00on par

Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murdoch Melville ↓

Gosnells City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Murdoch Melville or draw

74%

Murdoch Melville or Gosnells City

79%

Draw or Gosnells City

47%

Winning margin

Murdoch Melville wins by 2+

32%

Gosnells City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Murdoch Melville 1+ goals

89%

Murdoch Melville 2+ goals

64%

Murdoch Melville 3+ goals

37%

Gosnells City 1+ goals

78%

Gosnells City 2+ goals

44%

Gosnells City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)

67%

Gosnells City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murdoch Melville at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.10 · 30 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murdoch Melville attack 2.10 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.19

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Murdoch Melville defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Murdoch Melville scores more

53%

level

21%

Gosnells City scores more

26%

Murdoch Melville at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Murdoch Melville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff