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Murchante vs Valle Egüés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Murchante
Murchante
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 24Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Murchante35%
×Draw27%
Valle Egüés37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murchante
1.19
Valle Egüés
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 90 away

creates per match

Murchante
1.00
Valle Egüés
1.27

allows per match

Murchante
1.21
Valle Egüés
1.38

finishing

Murchante+0.00on par
Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murchante ↓

Valle Egüés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Murchante or draw
63%
Murchante or Valle Egüés
73%
Draw or Valle Egüés
65%

Winning margin

Murchante wins by 2+
15%
Valle Egüés wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Murchante 1+ goals
70%
Murchante 2+ goals
33%
Murchante 3+ goals
12%
Valle Egüés 1+ goals
71%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
35%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Murchante (draw refunded)
48%
Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murchante at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murchante attack 1.00 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + Murchante defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Murchante scores more
35%
level
27%
Valle Egüés scores more
37%

Valle Egüés at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murchante vs Valle Egüés

Murchante beat Valle Egüés 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Roque in Cascante.