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Murchante vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Murchante
Murchante
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
4/1/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 22Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Murchante50%
×Draw24%
Peña Azagresa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murchante
1.72
Peña Azagresa
1.17

Murchante creates 47% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

creates per match

Murchante
1.00
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Murchante
1.21
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Murchante+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murchante ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Murchante or draw
74%
Murchante or Peña Azagresa
76%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
50%

Winning margin

Murchante wins by 2+
27%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Murchante 1+ goals
82%
Murchante 2+ goals
51%
Murchante 3+ goals
25%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
69%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
33%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Murchante (draw refunded)
66%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murchante at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murchante attack 1.00 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Murchante defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Murchante scores more
50%
level
24%
Peña Azagresa scores more
26%

Murchante at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Murchante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Murchante 1–0 Peña Azagresa

Murchante beat Peña Azagresa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Roque in Cascante.