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Murchante vs Fontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Murchante
Murchante
CANC
00:00
Fontellas
Fontellas
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 35Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Murchante64%
×Draw20%
Fontellas15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murchante
2.07
Fontellas
0.89

Murchante creates 133% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

creates per match

Murchante
1.00
Fontellas
0.57

allows per match

Murchante
1.21
Fontellas
3.14

finishing

Murchante+0.00on par
Fontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murchante ↓

Fontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Murchante or draw
85%
Murchante or Fontellas
80%
Draw or Fontellas
36%

Winning margin

Murchante wins by 2+
40%
Fontellas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Murchante 1+ goals
87%
Murchante 2+ goals
61%
Murchante 3+ goals
34%
Fontellas 1+ goals
59%
Fontellas 2+ goals
22%
Fontellas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Murchante (draw refunded)
81%
Fontellas (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murchante at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Fontellas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murchante attack 1.00 + Fontellas defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Fontellas attack 0.57 + Murchante defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Murchante scores more
64%
level
20%
Fontellas scores more
15%

Murchante at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Murchante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Murchante face Fontellas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 returns with Murchante hosting Fontellas. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Murchante host Fontellas at Estadio San Roque.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.