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Murchante vs Beti Kozkor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Murchante
Murchante
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
12/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 17Estadio San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Murchante40%
×Draw28%
Beti Kozkor32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murchante
1.27
Beti Kozkor
1.10

Murchante creates 15% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 93 away

creates per match

Murchante
1.00
Beti Kozkor
1.00

allows per match

Murchante
1.21
Beti Kozkor
1.55

finishing

Murchante+0.00on par
Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murchante ↓

Beti Kozkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Murchante or draw
68%
Murchante or Beti Kozkor
72%
Draw or Beti Kozkor
60%

Winning margin

Murchante wins by 2+
18%
Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Murchante 1+ goals
72%
Murchante 2+ goals
36%
Murchante 3+ goals
14%
Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
67%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
30%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Murchante (draw refunded)
56%
Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murchante at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murchante attack 1.00 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Murchante defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Murchante scores more
40%
level
28%
Beti Kozkor scores more
32%

Murchante at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Murchante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murchante vs Beti Kozkor

Beti Kozkor beat Murchante 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Roque in Cascante.