Muravera 1–1 Vis Artena: Result & Stats

Muravera

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vis Artena

4/24/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 30Campo Sportivo di Muravera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Muravera40%

×Draw27%

Vis Artena33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuraveraExpected goals in this matchVis Artena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.20

Muravera

1.36

Vis Artena

1.20

Muravera creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 47 away

1.53

creates per match

1.06

1.33

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Muravera

1.53

Vis Artena

1.06

allows per match

Muravera

1.33

Vis Artena

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muravera+0.00on par

Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muravera ↓

Vis Artena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Muravera or draw

67%

Muravera or Vis Artena

73%

Draw or Vis Artena

60%

Winning margin

Muravera wins by 2+

19%

Vis Artena wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Muravera 1+ goals

74%

Muravera 2+ goals

39%

Muravera 3+ goals

16%

Vis Artena 1+ goals

70%

Vis Artena 2+ goals

34%

Vis Artena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Muravera (draw refunded)

55%

Vis Artena (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muravera at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muravera attack 1.53 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Muravera defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Muravera scores more

40%

level

27%

Vis Artena scores more

33%

Muravera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Muravera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff