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Muravera vs Trastevere — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Muravera
Muravera
FT
2 – 0
Trastevere
Trastevere
11/10/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 11Campo Sportivo di Muravera (Muravera)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Muravera44%
×Draw25%
Trastevere32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muravera
1.59
Trastevere
1.31

Muravera creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 64 away

creates per match

Muravera
1.53
Trastevere
1.30

allows per match

Muravera
1.33
Trastevere
1.66

finishing

Muravera+0.00on par
Trastevere+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muravera ↓

Trastevere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Muravera or draw
68%
Muravera or Trastevere
75%
Draw or Trastevere
56%

Winning margin

Muravera wins by 2+
22%
Trastevere wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Muravera 1+ goals
80%
Muravera 2+ goals
47%
Muravera 3+ goals
21%
Trastevere 1+ goals
73%
Trastevere 2+ goals
38%
Trastevere 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Muravera (draw refunded)
58%
Trastevere (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muravera at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Trastevere away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muravera attack 1.53 + Trastevere defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Trastevere attack 1.30 + Muravera defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Muravera scores more
44%
level
25%
Trastevere scores more
32%

Muravera at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Muravera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Muravera 2–0 Trastevere

Muravera beat Trastevere 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Muravera (Muravera).