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Murata vs Domagnano — Coppa Titano 2020

Murata
Murata
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Domagnano
Domagnano
9/28/2023Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Murata50%
×Draw26%
Domagnano24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murata
1.55
Domagnano
1.00

Murata creates 55% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Murata
1.20
Domagnano
0.90

allows per match

Murata
1.10
Domagnano
1.90

finishing

Murata+0.00on par
Domagnano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murata ↓

Domagnano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Murata or draw
76%
Murata or Domagnano
74%
Draw or Domagnano
50%

Winning margin

Murata wins by 2+
26%
Domagnano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Murata 1+ goals
79%
Murata 2+ goals
46%
Murata 3+ goals
20%
Domagnano 1+ goals
63%
Domagnano 2+ goals
26%
Domagnano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Murata (draw refunded)
67%
Domagnano (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murata at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Domagnano away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murata attack 1.20 + Domagnano defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.55

Domagnano attack 0.90 + Murata defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Murata scores more
50%
level
26%
Domagnano scores more
24%

Murata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Murata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Murata 0–0 Domagnano

Murata and Domagnano drew 0-0 in Coppa Titano on September 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.