Muras United 4–1 Neftchi: Result & Stats

Muras United

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Neftchi

8/2/2025

Premier League · Round 15Stadion Kurmanbek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Muras United48%

×Draw24%

Neftchi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muras UnitedExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.20

Muras United

1.65

Neftchi

1.20

Muras United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 94 away

1.96

creates per match

1.37

1.02

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Muras United

1.96

Neftchi

1.37

allows per match

Muras United

1.02

Neftchi

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muras United+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muras United ↓

Neftchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Muras United or draw

72%

Muras United or Neftchi

76%

Draw or Neftchi

52%

Winning margin

Muras United wins by 2+

25%

Neftchi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Muras United 1+ goals

81%

Muras United 2+ goals

49%

Muras United 3+ goals

23%

Neftchi 1+ goals

70%

Neftchi 2+ goals

34%

Neftchi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Muras United (draw refunded)

63%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muras United at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.02 · 48 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muras United attack 1.96 + Neftchi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.65

Neftchi attack 1.37 + Muras United defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Muras United scores more

48%

level

24%

Neftchi scores more

28%

Muras United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Muras United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff