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Murang'a SEAL vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

Murang'a SEAL
Murang'a SEAL
CANC
00:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
4/27/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22St. Sebastian Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Murang'a SEAL59%
×Draw22%
Zoo Kericho19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murang'a SEAL
1.98
Zoo Kericho
1.04

Murang'a SEAL creates 90% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 14 away

creates per match

Murang'a SEAL
2.33
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

Murang'a SEAL
0.45
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murang'a SEAL ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Murang'a SEAL or draw
81%
Murang'a SEAL or Zoo Kericho
78%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
41%

Winning margin

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+
35%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals
86%
Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals
59%
Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals
31%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
65%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
28%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)
75%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murang'a SEAL at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.45 · 33 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murang'a SEAL attack 2.33 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.98

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + Murang'a SEAL defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Murang'a SEAL scores more
59%
level
22%
Zoo Kericho scores more
19%

Murang'a SEAL at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Murang'a SEAL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Murang'a SEAL host Zoo Kericho

April 27, 2022: Murang'a SEAL take on Zoo Kericho in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Murang'a SEAL host Zoo Kericho at St. Sebastian Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.