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Murang'a SEAL vs Silibwet — Super League 2018

Murang'a SEAL
Murang'a SEAL
FT
2 – 0
Silibwet
Silibwet
1/11/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7St. Sebastian Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Murang'a SEAL78%
×Draw15%
Silibwet7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murang'a SEAL
2.35
Silibwet
0.54

Murang'a SEAL creates 335% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 54 away

creates per match

Murang'a SEAL
2.33
Silibwet
0.63

allows per match

Murang'a SEAL
0.45
Silibwet
2.37

finishing

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par
Silibwet+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murang'a SEAL ↓

Silibwet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Murang'a SEAL or draw
93%
Murang'a SEAL or Silibwet
85%
Draw or Silibwet
22%

Winning margin

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+
54%
Silibwet wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals
90%
Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals
68%
Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals
41%
Silibwet 1+ goals
42%
Silibwet 2+ goals
10%
Silibwet 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)
92%
Silibwet (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murang'a SEAL at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.45 · 33 matches

Silibwet away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murang'a SEAL attack 2.33 + Silibwet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.35

Silibwet attack 0.63 + Murang'a SEAL defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Murang'a SEAL scores more
78%
level
15%
Silibwet scores more
7%

Murang'a SEAL at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Murang'a SEAL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murang'a SEAL vs Silibwet

Murang'a SEAL beat Silibwet 2-0 in Super League on January 11, 2023.

The match was played at St. Sebastian Park in Githuri.