Murang'a SEAL 1–0 Posta Rangers FC: Result & Stats

Murang'a SEAL

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Posta Rangers FC

3/1/2026

FKF Premier League · Round 21SportPesa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Murang'a SEAL36%

×Draw30%

Posta Rangers FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Murang'a SEALExpected goals in this matchPosta Rangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.06

Murang'a SEAL

1.08

Posta Rangers FC

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 149 away

1.02

creates per match

1.03

1.10

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Murang'a SEAL

1.02

Posta Rangers FC

1.03

allows per match

Murang'a SEAL

1.10

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murang'a SEAL ↓

Posta Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Murang'a SEAL or draw

65%

Murang'a SEAL or Posta Rangers FC

70%

Draw or Posta Rangers FC

64%

Winning margin

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+

14%

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals

66%

Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals

29%

Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals

10%

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

65%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

29%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)

51%

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murang'a SEAL at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murang'a SEAL attack 1.02 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Murang'a SEAL scores more

36%

level

30%

Posta Rangers FC scores more

35%

Murang'a SEAL at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Murang'a SEAL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff