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Murang'a SEAL vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Murang'a SEAL
Murang'a SEAL
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
J. Imbiakha 87'
P. Osama 5'
C. Akite 55'
1/18/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17SportPesa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Murang'a SEAL38%
×Draw29%
Bidco United33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murang'a SEAL
1.13
Bidco United
1.03

Murang'a SEAL creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

creates per match

Murang'a SEAL
1.12
Bidco United
0.77

allows per match

Murang'a SEAL
1.29
Bidco United
1.13

finishing

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murang'a SEAL ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Murang'a SEAL or draw
67%
Murang'a SEAL or Bidco United
71%
Draw or Bidco United
62%

Winning margin

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+
16%
Bidco United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals
68%
Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals
31%
Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals
11%
Bidco United 1+ goals
64%
Bidco United 2+ goals
28%
Bidco United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)
54%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murang'a SEAL at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murang'a SEAL attack 1.12 + Bidco United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bidco United attack 0.77 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Murang'a SEAL scores more
38%
level
29%
Bidco United scores more
33%

Murang'a SEAL at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Murang'a SEAL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
P. Osama
55'
C. Akite
87'
J. Imbiakha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murang'a SEAL vs Bidco United

Murang'a SEAL beat Bidco United 2-1 in FKF Premier League on January 18, 2026.

Goals: P. Osama (5'), C. Akite (55'), J. Imbiakha (87').

The match was played at SportPesa Arena in Murang'a.