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Mura vs Rogaška — 1. SNL 2026

Mura
Mura
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Rogaška
Rogaška
5/18/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 36Mestni Štadion Fazanerija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mura53%
×Draw24%
Rogaška23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mura
1.74
Rogaška
1.07

Mura creates 63% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mura
1.42
Rogaška
1.00

allows per match

Mura
1.14
Rogaška
2.06

finishing

Mura+0.00on par
Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mura ↓

Rogaška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mura or draw
77%
Mura or Rogaška
76%
Draw or Rogaška
47%

Winning margin

Mura wins by 2+
29%
Rogaška wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mura 1+ goals
82%
Mura 2+ goals
52%
Mura 3+ goals
25%
Rogaška 1+ goals
66%
Rogaška 2+ goals
29%
Rogaška 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mura (draw refunded)
69%
Rogaška (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mura at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.14 · 125 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mura attack 1.42 + Rogaška defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.74

Rogaška attack 1.00 + Mura defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mura scores more
53%
level
24%
Rogaška scores more
23%

Mura at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mura vs Rogaška

Rogaška beat Mura 2-1 in 1. SNL on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Mestni Štadion Fazanerija in Murska Sobota.