Münster 1–0 Oberperfuss: Result & Stats

Münster

FT

1 – 0

Oberperfuss

7/29/2022

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 1Sportplatz Münster

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Münster52%

×Draw20%

Oberperfuss28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MünsterExpected goals in this matchOberperfuss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.71

Münster

2.35

Oberperfuss

1.71

Münster creates 37% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

2.07

creates per match

1.79

1.63

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Münster

2.07

Oberperfuss

1.79

allows per match

Münster

1.63

Oberperfuss

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Münster+0.00on par

Oberperfuss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Münster ↓

Oberperfuss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Münster or draw

72%

Münster or Oberperfuss

80%

Draw or Oberperfuss

48%

Winning margin

Münster wins by 2+

32%

Oberperfuss wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Münster 1+ goals

90%

Münster 2+ goals

68%

Münster 3+ goals

41%

Oberperfuss 1+ goals

82%

Oberperfuss 2+ goals

51%

Oberperfuss 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Münster (draw refunded)

65%

Oberperfuss (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Münster at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Oberperfuss away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Münster attack 2.07 + Oberperfuss defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.35

Oberperfuss attack 1.79 + Münster defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Münster scores more

52%

level

20%

Oberperfuss scores more

28%

Münster at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff