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Münster vs Mils — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Münster
Münster
FT
0 – 0
Mils
Mils
8/6/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 3Sportplatz Münster

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Münster50%
×Draw20%
Mils30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Münster
2.30
Mils
1.77

Münster creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 70 away

creates per match

Münster
2.07
Mils
1.91

allows per match

Münster
1.63
Mils
2.54

finishing

Münster+0.00on par
Mils+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Münster ↓

Mils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Münster or draw
70%
Münster or Mils
80%
Draw or Mils
50%

Winning margin

Münster wins by 2+
30%
Mils wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Münster 1+ goals
90%
Münster 2+ goals
67%
Münster 3+ goals
40%
Mils 1+ goals
83%
Mils 2+ goals
53%
Mils 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Münster (draw refunded)
62%
Mils (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Münster at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Mils away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Münster attack 2.07 + Mils defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.30

Mils attack 1.91 + Münster defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Münster scores more
50%
level
20%
Mils scores more
30%

Münster at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Münster vs Mils

Münster and Mils drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Münster in Münster.