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Münster vs Kirchbichl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Münster
Münster
FT
5 – 1
Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
5/13/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 24Sportplatz Münster

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Münster48%
×Draw21%
Kirchbichl31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Münster
2.13
Kirchbichl
1.70

Münster creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Münster
2.07
Kirchbichl
1.77

allows per match

Münster
1.63
Kirchbichl
2.18

finishing

Münster+0.00on par
Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Münster ↓

Kirchbichl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Münster or draw
69%
Münster or Kirchbichl
79%
Draw or Kirchbichl
52%

Winning margin

Münster wins by 2+
28%
Kirchbichl wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Münster 1+ goals
88%
Münster 2+ goals
63%
Münster 3+ goals
35%
Kirchbichl 1+ goals
82%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
51%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Münster (draw refunded)
60%
Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Münster at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Kirchbichl away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Münster attack 2.07 + Kirchbichl defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kirchbichl attack 1.77 + Münster defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Münster scores more
48%
level
21%
Kirchbichl scores more
31%

Münster at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Münster 5–1 Kirchbichl

Münster beat Kirchbichl 5-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Münster in Münster.