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Münster vs Innsbrucker AC — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Münster
Münster
FT
0 – 2
Innsbrucker AC
Innsbrucker AC
5/7/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 23Sportplatz Münster

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Münster42%
×Draw22%
Innsbrucker AC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Münster
1.93
Innsbrucker AC
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Münster
2.07
Innsbrucker AC
1.97

allows per match

Münster
1.63
Innsbrucker AC
1.79

finishing

Münster+0.00on par
Innsbrucker AC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Münster ↓

Innsbrucker AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Münster or draw
63%
Münster or Innsbrucker AC
78%
Draw or Innsbrucker AC
58%

Winning margin

Münster wins by 2+
23%
Innsbrucker AC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Münster 1+ goals
85%
Münster 2+ goals
57%
Münster 3+ goals
30%
Innsbrucker AC 1+ goals
83%
Innsbrucker AC 2+ goals
54%
Innsbrucker AC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Münster (draw refunded)
53%
Innsbrucker AC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Münster at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Innsbrucker AC away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.79 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Münster attack 2.07 + Innsbrucker AC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.93

Innsbrucker AC attack 1.97 + Münster defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Münster scores more
42%
level
22%
Innsbrucker AC scores more
37%

Münster at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Münster 0–2 Innsbrucker AC

Innsbrucker AC beat Münster 2-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Münster in Münster.