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Munsbach vs Résidence Walferdange — Cup 2020

Munsbach
Munsbachadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Résidence Walferdange
Résidence Walferdange
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Munsbach24%
×Draw18%
Résidence Walferdange58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Munsbach
1.77
Résidence Walferdange
2.75

Résidence Walferdange creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Munsbach
2.20
Résidence Walferdange
2.50

allows per match

Munsbach
3.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.33

finishing

Munsbach+0.00on par
Résidence Walferdange+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Munsbach ↓

Résidence Walferdange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Munsbach or draw
42%
Munsbach or Résidence Walferdange
82%
Draw or Résidence Walferdange
76%

Winning margin

Munsbach wins by 2+
11%
Résidence Walferdange wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Munsbach 1+ goals
83%
Munsbach 2+ goals
53%
Munsbach 3+ goals
26%
Résidence Walferdange 1+ goals
93%
Résidence Walferdange 2+ goals
75%
Résidence Walferdange 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Munsbach (draw refunded)
30%
Résidence Walferdange (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Munsbach at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Résidence Walferdange away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Munsbach attack 2.20 + Résidence Walferdange defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Résidence Walferdange attack 2.50 + Munsbach defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Munsbach scores more
24%
level
18%
Résidence Walferdange scores more
58%

Résidence Walferdange at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Résidence Walferdange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Munsbach 3–1 Résidence Walferdange

Munsbach beat Résidence Walferdange 3-1 in Cup on September 21, 2025.