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Munsbach vs Jeunesse Canach — Cup 2020

Munsbach
Munsbach
AET
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Jeunesse Canach
Jeunesse Canach
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain synthétique Munsbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Munsbach23%
×Draw18%
Jeunesse Canach59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Munsbach
1.77
Jeunesse Canach
2.83

Jeunesse Canach creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Munsbach
2.20
Jeunesse Canach
2.67

allows per match

Munsbach
3.00
Jeunesse Canach
1.33

finishing

Munsbach+0.00on par
Jeunesse Canach+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Munsbach ↓

Jeunesse Canach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Munsbach or draw
41%
Munsbach or Jeunesse Canach
82%
Draw or Jeunesse Canach
77%

Winning margin

Munsbach wins by 2+
11%
Jeunesse Canach wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Munsbach 1+ goals
83%
Munsbach 2+ goals
53%
Munsbach 3+ goals
26%
Jeunesse Canach 1+ goals
94%
Jeunesse Canach 2+ goals
77%
Jeunesse Canach 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Munsbach (draw refunded)
28%
Jeunesse Canach (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Munsbach at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Jeunesse Canach away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Munsbach attack 2.20 + Jeunesse Canach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jeunesse Canach attack 2.67 + Munsbach defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Munsbach scores more
23%
level
18%
Jeunesse Canach scores more
59%

Jeunesse Canach at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jeunesse Canach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Munsbach 1–3 Jeunesse Canach

Jeunesse Canach beat Munsbach 3-1 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain synthétique Munsbach in Munsbach.