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Munsbach vs Daring Echternach — Cup 2020

Munsbach
Munsbach
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Daring Echternach
Daring Echternach
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain synthétique Munsbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Munsbach26%
×Draw20%
Daring Echternach54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Munsbach
1.60
Daring Echternach
2.33

Daring Echternach creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Munsbach
2.20
Daring Echternach
1.67

allows per match

Munsbach
3.00
Daring Echternach
1.00

finishing

Munsbach+0.00on par
Daring Echternach+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Munsbach ↓

Daring Echternach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Munsbach or draw
46%
Munsbach or Daring Echternach
80%
Draw or Daring Echternach
74%

Winning margin

Munsbach wins by 2+
12%
Daring Echternach wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Munsbach 1+ goals
80%
Munsbach 2+ goals
47%
Munsbach 3+ goals
22%
Daring Echternach 1+ goals
90%
Daring Echternach 2+ goals
67%
Daring Echternach 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Munsbach (draw refunded)
33%
Daring Echternach (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Munsbach at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Daring Echternach away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Munsbach attack 2.20 + Daring Echternach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Daring Echternach attack 1.67 + Munsbach defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Munsbach scores more
26%
level
20%
Daring Echternach scores more
54%

Daring Echternach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Daring Echternach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Munsbach vs Daring Echternach

Munsbach and Daring Echternach drew 0-0 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain synthétique Munsbach in Munsbach.