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Munkács vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Munkács
Munkács
CANC
15:00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3/26/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 21Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Munkács36%
×Draw27%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Munkács
1.27
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Munkács
1.50
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.38

allows per match

Munkács
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.05

finishing

Munkács+0.00on par
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Munkács ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Munkács or draw
63%
Munkács or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
73%
Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
64%

Winning margin

Munkács wins by 2+
16%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Munkács 1+ goals
72%
Munkács 2+ goals
36%
Munkács 3+ goals
14%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
72%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
37%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Munkács (draw refunded)
49%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Munkács at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Munkács attack 1.50 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.38 + Munkács defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Munkács scores more
36%
level
27%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
37%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Munkács face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with Munkács hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Match starts March 26, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Munkács host Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Stadion Avanhard.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.