Municipal 3–1 Siquinalá: Result & Stats

Municipal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Siquinalá

2/1/2020

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 4Estadio El Trébol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Municipal67%

×Draw20%

Siquinalá13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MunicipalExpected goals in this matchSiquinalá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.73

Municipal

1.98

Siquinalá

0.73

Municipal creates 171% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 17 away

1.97

creates per match

0.76

0.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Municipal

1.97

Siquinalá

0.76

allows per match

Municipal

0.71

Siquinalá

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Municipal+0.00on par

Siquinalá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal ↓

Siquinalá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Municipal or draw

87%

Municipal or Siquinalá

80%

Draw or Siquinalá

33%

Winning margin

Municipal wins by 2+

41%

Siquinalá wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Municipal 1+ goals

86%

Municipal 2+ goals

59%

Municipal 3+ goals

31%

Siquinalá 1+ goals

52%

Siquinalá 2+ goals

17%

Siquinalá 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Municipal (draw refunded)

84%

Siquinalá (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.71 · 159 matches

Siquinalá away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal attack 1.97 + Siquinalá defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Siquinalá attack 0.76 + Municipal defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Municipal scores more

67%

level

20%

Siquinalá scores more

13%

Municipal at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff